Dec 29 2007
20 Perilous Predictions: 2008 Edition
Everyone else is doing it, and so will I. Here, off the top of my head, and totally unsupported and unfounded, are my 20 predictions for 2008 in the worlds of marketing, media and culture. See if you agree with even one of them (or if you think I have gone totally off the reservation). I encourage you to share your own 2008 prognostications in this space. Hey, it doesn’t cost a thing and some of them might even come true! *
- Go Daddy will again spend a cool couple of million to advertise its bad taste on the Super Bowl and most people will still wonder, "What exactly does that company do?"
- Sensing an embarrassing defeat in the Republican primary (even Ron Paul is poised to beat him in New Hampshire next month), Rudy Giuliani will withdraw from the race, blaming a mysterious ailment or something equally vague. His recent "bad headache" was just a warm up to this inevitability.
- Facebook will not live up to its $15 billion valuation, but Microsoft won’t care. They were just relieved to finally beat Google with their 2007 $240M investment in the social networking wunderkind.
- Speaking of Google, they will continue to rule search, but their other ventures will, for the most part, falter.
- Yahoo will just kind of run out of steam and sell all or most of the company.
- At least one major fashion magazine will run a front page headline in its fall fashion edition that trumpets a "Return to Glamour."
- The big ad agencies will wonder why they are not getting more digital business, even after naming big ticket Digital Czars. Consequently, many of these digital "heads" will be fired or reassigned.
- Chrysler will not even come close to resuscitating itself and Cerberus Capital, the massive private equity firm that acquired it, will look like a three-headed chump for buying its debt in the first place.
- Ford, on the other hand, will finally start to get back on track, especially with the launch of its new category changing Fairlane/Flex station wagon/crossover. The Blue Oval brand will also show its renewed vitality by green lighting the production of a retro but very fuel efficient version of the iconic Ford SUV, the Bronco.
- The white male ceiling of the American presidency will finally be shattered by either a woman or a black man.
- Blockbuster will start selling burritos as a prelude to getting out of the movie rental business altogether (the company’s new CEO is the former chief at 7/11, so he knows from burritos). At the same time, Netflix will start a decline that will force that former high flier to completely change its business model (the crystal ball is unclear whether it can ultimately survive this coming decline).
- After the planned breakup of his InterActive Corp. into multiple pieces, Barry Diller will get out of the Internet business, claiming he never liked it in the first place. Rupert Murdoch will buy the Ask search engine and turn it into a real competitor.
- The housing market will not come back (not yet, at least), and the Realtor monopoly will decline even further because of the continued growth of web-based home sellers like Zillow and the emergence of at least one new category killer. The decline and ultimate death of the 6% Realtor commission will be one of the few positive consequences of the mortgage and housing bust.
- In retailing, the Macy’s rebranding of local iconic stores (like Marshall Fields in Chicago) will be seen as even more of a marketing debacle, while the UK-based Tesco will stumble with its huge Fresh & Easy stores experiment (the postmortem will be that Tesco never really understood the tastes of US consumers). Tesco will learn, for one thing, that you don’t create Trader Joe’s overnight.
- The business life expectancy of the Chief Marketing Officer will drop even further to something approaching the lifespan of a flea (or less).
- The Green Revolution will finally go mainstream, but not because former global warming deniers got environmental religion. People are now getting real about sustainability because of hometown environmental disasters such as the historic drought in Red States like Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama, and the massive water problems in the West.
- Marketers will start to realize that word of mouth (or "viral") marketing cannot be manufactured or manipulated. The whole point of word of mouth is that it happens spontaneously and naturally. Consumers tend to see through buzz that is created artificially and then ignore or reject it.
- Despite the funeral dirges already being sounded for their deaths, traditional media such as magazines and even newspapers will continue to live on in the next 12 months. With any luck, Rupert Murdoch’s purchase of and investment in the Wall Street Journal could be the catalyst for other newspaper revivals in 2008 and beyond.
- Misguided airlines will test in-flight cell phone use, and frequent fliers (like me) will rebel loudly and vigorously.
- The web 2.0 bubble will remain intact…at least for now!
* This blog guarantees that at least a quarter of these predictions will actually come true this year.
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21. Social Networking apps will become mainstream. Vampires, chicken throwing, and poking will lose the limelight, to genuinely useful applications generating participation across all demographics.
Hey Nostradamus, you have a future as a pundit! but, no Apple predictions? stock hit 200 this week. I predict it’s going the way of Google. 700 baby!
Mark, I totally agree…the really useful applications will take the limelight going forward. That said, how can Twitter last?!
Bob, I was going to mention Apple, but I am tired of giving Steve Jobs more props! OK, here is an Apple prediction. The new Apple movie downloading service will be the biggest threat to Netflix since Blockbuster got a pulse and created its “Total” program. That said, I think Apple will get ahead of itself with hubris next year and stumble badly in a new product launch (not sure what that is yet…perhaps a flat screen TV that links to the Nano). The product will be nice but pricey and not that special.
I can’t help but chime in on the Apple discussion. First off, as a marketer at heart, I love what Apple has achieved as a brand. They have successfully combined every touch point of their business–product, design, messaging, service, retail, and advertising–into supporting a compelling value proposition: technology can be sexy, cool and fun and accessible to the masses. However, what projected Apple on its meteoric rise was its irreverence and “us against them” mantra which appealed to its hard core users. These loyal users gave Apple the WOM marketing which elevated the brand. Incidentally, this approach is a consistently attractive battle cry throughout history whether it be with consumer brands or politics (see Obama and John Edward’s core message). However, as Apple grows share and mainstream adoption, I think it will be difficult to retain the hard core base of loyalists which made the brand what it is today. How long before Apple junkies and core users start to complain of Apple catering to the masses and dumbing down the product and design? And if Apple lose it’s evangelical support it may face the same plight of Rudy in the Republican race (Patrick’s prediction #2).
Five additional predictions:
1) The venerable CNET, one of the pioneering brands and companies on the web, will sell the business in 2008.
2) The Fed will continue to cut interest rates an additional .75% (next cut will be .5% followed by .25%) despite the growing evidence that inflation is on the rise. This easing policy combined with the proposed government “bail out” of the sub-prime debacle will create an economic mess.
3) Yoga will continue to grow in popularity, especially with aging baby boomers, and penetrate the heart land states.
4) Home gardening will increase in popularity as the health benefits of organic eating become clearer and the prices of produce in organic grocery stores continue to climb.
5) Britney will either “find religion” and reposition herself as a country music artist (a brilliant move IMHO) or, more likely, self-produce a sex tape with Dennis Rodman and release it for download online for $9.99! And, yes, I would probably order it and contribute to the pop culture madness.
Scott, brilliant analysis on Apple! I could not be in more agreement with you. The bigger, more successful and more ubiquitous they get, the less counter cultural and cool they become. And that is a big part of their appeal (1984 ad, etc.).
I love your predictions! We did work for Gaiam, so I have seen first hand where yoga is going (but, how do you get more men to take it up? Good marketing opportunity there!). Britney would do well to take your suggestion and switch to country! Strikes me as a real suuthern girl.
My big prediction… Following the evolution of the iPhone and other “high-tech” cellphones that will able to utilize the Google mobile application, mobile advertising will flourish in late 2008.
1. Apple stock will blow up like Google by doing exactly what they’re doing right now. I recently has the opportunity to experience a little of their genius….They offer free classes to get to know their products. Not the way Dell went with the “your grandma is too dumb and backwards to set up her computer so for a nominal fee we’ll send someone to her house”, but fun and interesting classes taught by real nerds. They also have a customer service edge no one seems to be picking up. You can call them, make an appointment and then show up to be helped. Your name even zooms across the big screen so you know how close to your appointment you are while you are shopping.
Throw in Steve’s new plan to create a revolutionary eCommerce experience by allowing you to skip lines at all of the stores and restaurants you normally go to and you’ve got one heck of a 2008. http://www.forbes.com/technology/2007/12/26/apple-patents-iphone-tech-wire-bc_1227appatent.html
2. My big prediction: We’re just getting started with the CXOs (Chief Experience Officer).
3. I also predict one big mobile shakeup. Several Asian mobile companies are eyeing US tweens. And we thought Pokemon content/characters were confusing, I predict a host of adorable and incomprehensible applications for young mobile users.
Just had to weigh in before the ball drops. Happy New Year!
[...] trends for 2008. OK, this blog also hazarded its 20 Perilous Predictions for the year ahead (http://www.ideadrivenmarketing.com/?p=40). But the Burnett predictions included this doozy: "This year we will see social networks [...]