Every year I go out on the limb with what seems to be every other intrepid blogger and make some wild and wooly predictions for the next 12 months. My subjects cut across the landscape of business, politics, media and culture (and, of course, celebrity).

So, here are my fearless predictions for 2010. I am sure you won’t be shy about letting me know which ones you think are especially off the wall! Let’s see which ones actually come true:

• Movies: The wonderful and frequently under-appreciated actor Jeff Bridges will win the Academy Award for "Crazy Heart." Quentin Tarantino will win the Oscar for "Inglorious Basterds," as will the film. I have not seen either movie, but you can feel the momentum growing for both artists.
• Social Networking: MySpace will continue its slide into irrelevance. (They used to say that once a beer brand declined, no amount of advertising could ever resuscitate it…same is true for social networking sites like MySpace and Friendster). The Facebook juggernaut will continue apace, as the company readies its blockbuster IPO. LinkedIn will keep posting resumes and salespeople will still use the site to spam others (yawn). Are there any other social networking sites out there?
• Twitter: I am conflicted regarding Twitter and its utility, and even its future. I realize it is continuing to grow strongly. And, I recognize its cultural and media significance. But, I also think that Twitter is the reigning champ when it comes to social media hyperbole (even more than Facebook). Twitter True Believers are in a class by themselves (like media critic David Carr, who wrote a long paean to Twitter for the NY Times editorial page today). Carr believes that Twitter will endure, and not suffer the fate of MySpace. I am really not so sure. I tend to think people will ultimately tire of Twitter. In fact, once you’ve been on it for awhile, Twitter has an amazing ability to be tiresome. We shall see. I have been wrong before in my web predictions (ya think?!).
• Aol: Does anyone really believe Aol can ever regain its luster from the early Dot Com era? The site’s new CEO Tim Armstrong thinks he can make the Google advertising lightning strike twice. I truly doubt it. But that won’t stop endless speculation about Aol and its prospects. I don’t think Aol will ever get back to where it was, or wants to be. They will spend a lot of money trying.
• Advertising: The big agency holding companies will start buying again (mostly digital firms), but one still wonders: what for? Their business models are broken and their stock prices are moribund. Look for a resurgence of hot new creative agencies. We may be on the verge of a new creative revolution, given the shaky state of the large agencies. Will be interesting to see who emerges to get this creative Renaissance rolling? Any predictions there?
• Newspapers: They are, and will be, surprisingly resilient, even as many predict their imminent extinction. My local San Francisco Chronicle actually looks like it is doing better than ever (they just went glossy late last year). As others have stated quite well, the news business will survive and even thrive. Newspapers are just one distribution model for news, and whether or not newsprint survives as a channel is not really the important thing. Go news!
• Politics: I could go on and on…but thankfully won’t! The Democrats will lose a lot of seats in the mid-terms (that is decidedly NOT a fearless prediction), but not enough for them to lose control. The Republicans will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by splintering into "Tea Bagger" far right groups. Those far right and libertarian factions will divide and conquer the Repubs, just as Ross Perot did in the election that brought Bill Clinton to power. All of this action will just add to the advertising coffers of FOX News and MSNBC.
• President Obama: The new president will learn from his mistakes and continue to score successes across multiple fronts (calling him a Jimmy Carter one-termer is just Rovian wishful thinking). His successes will include healthcare reform, some important green legislation and an improving economy (whether he had anything to do with it does not really matter, because he will get the credit/blame). Afghanistan will be the big question mark and danger for the country. It is hard to see how that war can go anyway but bad, especially given the recent news about the truly sad state of the Afghan Army. In general, I see 2010 as a solid but slogging year for President Obama.
• The Gate Crashing Salahi’s: Talk about cosmic/Karmic justice and the Law of Unintended Consequences. The Salahi’s stunt in crashing the Obama’s first major state dinner has brought a harsh glare on their grifter ways (forget the Bravo reality show contract). The year ahead will not be kind to them as creditors will continue to come out of the woodwork, demanding payment for the various services that the Salahi’s stole over the years. I predict Michaele will divorce Tarik in the year ahead, claiming she had nothing to do with all of that illegal stuff, and she was "shocked, shocked!". Yep, keep telling yourself that, Michaele. Their party crashing days ended last year. Now comes the ugly legal stuff.
• Sarah Palin: She will continue to make news from her Facebook page, and the Mainstream Media will continue to do her bidding for her by covering it (truly unbelievable). I predict that Sirius will pay Palin a lot of money to start a satellite radio talk show but it will fail miserably. Palin’s right wing audience is not really into satellite radio…they are more of the AM traditional radio types (read: FREE). Palin will continue to dangle the possibility that she might run for president in 2012, but she never will. She learned from her Alaska experience that it is much more fun being a rich and influential media star than actually governing. Can’t say I blame her. She can have a great and very lucrative career in media.
• Jay Leno: He will quit or be fired by Comcast, the new owners of NBC Universal. His nightly 10 pm talk show experiment has been, by all rights, an unmitigated disaster. Jay does not want to be a part of that failure any more than his management wants it to continue dragging down the ratings and antagonizing the affiliates. NBC will go back to creating original programming for that important nightly slot. That could be a big opportunity for NBC.
• Auto Industry: GM and Ford will continue their comebacks from the brink and Toyota’s surprising slide will get worse before it stops. Toyota has finally realized that their boring cars are just not cutting it any more. Chrysler will barely hold on until Fiat introduces its new models in the US. I think those Fiat/Chrysler models will be very successful in the US, particularly the cute, retro Fiat 500. Watch for Kia to keep growing with terrific little cars like the Soul. If I were in the car market right now, I would buy that little car.
• Tiger Woods: He will return to golf, as expected, but will retain very few sponsors. Nike will hang in there, because they need him as much as he needs them. But, Tiger Woods will NEVER return to his All American icon endorser status. The big question for Tiger is, can he withstand the bruising mental game of golf, after all the stress he has been going through. I know the guy has ice water in his veins, but that is a big challenge, even for the Tiger.
• The Economy: It will come back stronger than many are now predicting. The dire warnings of a double dip recession are more wishful thinking by President Obama’s enemies on the right, who would love nothing more than a continuation of hard economic times. They know that if the economy does not surge back on Main Street, including a return of some level of decent job growth, Obama is sunk. I predict the economy and jobs will grow as businesses realize they have sat on their hands long enough.
• Carrie Prejean: I couldn’t write a 2010 prediction list without including Ms. "inappropriate" (as if she knows what that even means). Finally realizing that her 15 minutes were up a few months ago, Carrie will resort to posing nude for Playboy in the coming year. She will find some tortured way to square that with her "deep" religious beliefs ("As a model, sharing my God-given body with others is part of His calling for me"). Something like that.

Those are my long-winded predictions for the year ahead in culture, media, business and politics. How about yours?

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